No Contest

Race to join the race.

On Thursday 20^th May, Diane Abbott spoiled Andy Burnham’s year. Former Health Secretary Burnham had consulted the astrologers in all the daily newspapers, examined the entrails of the first pigeon he could see in Trafalgar Square and finally decided to cautiously launch his leadership bid. He had appearances booked on all the influential programmes and had (probably) spent hours having his eyebrows waxed and any unsightly nasal hairs removed…only to be completely gazumped by the irresponsibly spontaneous Diane Abbott waking up and deciding that this really looked the day to launch a leadership bid.

Abbott then joined Ed Milliband in trying to talk about grown-up things like ‘why did we lose the election?’, ‘why don’t people like us anymore?’, ‘what if David Milliband is too nerdy to get elected?’ It was refreshing. The public engages with Abbott, she doesn’t over-do the jargon, she seems to spend some of her time talking to people who aren’t members of political parties and she seems…well…happy.

So, Sunday morning, listening to ‘Broadcasting House’ on Radio 4 and Abbott is reviewing the day's papers with none other than…Lionel Blair. Great opening joke from Lionel, who reported than he met Cherie Blair just after the Labour landslide in 1997, and she greeted him warmly, asking ‘do you get called "Tony" as much as he gets called "Lionel"?' ‘No-one's ever called me "Tony",’ he answered. Chilly silence from Cherie, but the studio loves it. Brilliant move, this, Diane Abbott with much loved, old guard entertainer, well done Diane, you’ve won over Middle England.

And then it went wrong. Lionel started telling stories. It was like meeting up with an old friend of the family that you last saw when you were a kid, the kind of person that you used to call ‘uncle’ even though they weren’t related to you, and realising that the world has moved on and they haven’t. Lionel, it turns out, has some interesting views on, you know, everything that’s changed in the last thirty years, paying taxes (he thinks that Vince Cable wants to tax his conservatory), women, socialism, John Prescott. And I’m not actually saying that he’s racist, but I am implying it…

So Diane Abbott is left looking uncomfortable, except this is radio so she just keeps quiet. She must have been wondering why David Milliband wasn't there, or either of the Eds. This is the problem of being an outsider in the Labour Leadership race, you have to pursue any opportunity for publicity that you can get – just to get on the ballot paper.

It’s unlikely that any Labour party member will be able to vote for Diane Abbott as Labour Leader. The race at the moment is the race to get thirty-three MPs to nominate you. Labour has 258 MPs, so there could be seven candidates standing in the actual election, when it begins. The problem, however, is that MPs want to be seen to back the winning horse. The two Millibands between them have 78 MPs pledged – twelve more than they need. But David, particularly, is likely to keep picking up nominations. Why not? You think he’ll win, you get in early, then he owes you a favour, maybe a Shadow Cabinet post and then a role as a Junior Minister once the Coalition falls apart.

Another MP hoping to be a candidate is John McDonnell. He has proposed that once a candidate gets to thirty-three MPs, they close the book and so MPs have to go and find another candidate to officially support. His argument is that real contests helped the Conservatives and Lib. Dems. elect leaders who weren’t the favourites, who came through in the PR battle and began to raise their profile with the public. The Labour Party, on the other hand, has a history of Soviet style mock-elections. Notice that David Milliband has said next to nothing so far. Why take any risks?

Sadly for Diane Abbott, nobody seems to be taking McDonnell’s proposal seriously.